Cause of the Rising Price of Gold Against Currency
Sunday, June 20th, 2010
The gold price in U.S. dollars has appreciated nine consecutive years an annual average of 17.1%. During this period of increased gold price compared to other currencies in double-digit annual rates, including an average annual rate of 11.9% in euros. Clearly, gold has been one of the assets which have increased this decade.
With these excellent results over a long period of time as is reasonable to ask if the gold bull market is over. The answer is a resounding no. The reason is that the purchasing power of all national currencies, worldwide continues to be devalued.
The gold bull market is the face B of the same coin which measures the bear market of the national currencies that began in 1971. In that year became the currency “fiat” that are no longer redeemable in gold. Since then, all fiat currencies are in a downward race to see which will be the first completely lose their purchasing power and be discarded.
Many currencies have already crossed the finish line. In the ’80s, several Latin American currencies collapsed completely. The currency suffered the same fate of the Balkans in the ’90s and more recently, Zimbabwe. And while other currencies like the Mexican peso, Russian ruble and the Turkish lira has not completely collapsed, they buy much less now than at its peak.
In these countries, governments, through their central banks resorted to the “printing press” and what today is called “quantitative monetary expansion.” Stated simply, the central banks bought national debt and the currency became either printing money or by using the accounts to add newly created currency in the government’s checking account to be spent extending checks. Indeed, central banks convert currency debt can be spent and can create as much currency as they want, because without a direct link to gold, there is no discipline.
Until 1971, the currency could only be created if you had gold reserves, and thus the national currency was circulating a suitable substitute in place of the less desirable gold coin. But all this has changed. Removing the requirement that controlled the creation of currency, governments create new currency rather than reducing costs. So currencies are degraded, which explains why the gold price is rising.
National currencies continually buying less because of government policies. Until this changes, the gold bull market will continue.
